Sorry, Your Bottom’s Not My Type

There are any number of objective measures of the financial markets, the current price being an obvious one. However, the meaning of any of these objective measures is unavoidably subjective and dependent on the individual.

When a pundit says it’s a bottom [substitute top if you prefer], people tend to implicitly assume what the speaker is referring to as “a bottom” matches their own idea of “a bottom.” After all, some agreement about words and the ideas they represent is the basis of all communication. But whether something is a bottom or not depends on the time frame, view of the market, and a variety of other personal factors. Even the question of whether the market is going up or down depends on the time frame in question. A boring, nothing bar on one time scale may be a nauseating roller coaster on another.

The best answer to any market question is “It depends.” Most of all it depends on you. Your trading methodology, market outlook, account size, position size, risk tolerance, your portfolio, and even what your spouse will do to you if they find out, can all change the meaning of a chart. Further, since those factors can all change over time so can the meaning of a particular chart pattern for the same individual.

I don’t mean to piss on the social parade, it’s great to learn from other opinions and trading ideas, as well as use them as a gauge of shifting sentiment. But never forget that markets, like beauty, are in the eye of the beholder. Regardless of the pedigree of the pundit, or quality of the trade idea, that beauty may just not be your type. Having a wingman is fine, but you still need to get your own girl (or guy).


One thought on “Sorry, Your Bottom’s Not My Type

  1. Pingback: That’s Gonna Leave A Mark | Mortality Sucks

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