Pseudo Random News and Comment

236 – The maximum number of times Lance Armstrong could have been tested in his career. Half what his PR team is claiming of late.

Exercise can help cancer patients, but few oncologists suggest it  Cutting recurrence rate by 50% seems to good to be true, but even if it’s half that it’s still a damn good number, with no adverse effects.

Bad Trades as a Macro Parable  A more expansive view of what constitutes trading always warms my heart.

More easily influenced when we follow our heart  And more easily influenced by people who most resemble them. I’m patenting myself so nobody can do that to me.

Beliefs drive investors more than preferences, study finds  But emotions influence those beliefs, so it’s not as cut and dry and presented here.

Most People Say They Are Safe Drivers, Want New Auto Assist Tech Anyway  So which is “you?” The one that thinks you’re great, or the one that thinks you need help? Both? Neither? The ability to hold such conflicting thoughts and beliefs makes the idea of a unitary self hard to defend.

Oxytocin Increases Heart Rate Variability in Humans at Rest: Implications for Social Approach-Related Motivation and Capacity for Social Engagement  Are they talking about sex? I don’t feel the need to raise my heart rate for just a conversation.

Pettis: Hard commodity prices will halve in 2 years  Deceptive headline alert. Much more measured views in the actual article.

A Critique of the Methodology Of Mises & Rothbard “That is not to say that interest rate spikes and high inflation cannot emerge further down the line. But these predictive failures were symptomatic of deduction-oriented reasoning…”   A number of points I disagree with in this piece. Primarily, the failures described are ones of over-reaching and speculation rather than Austrian economics. Predicting hyperinflation after massive expansion of money and credit isn’t an economic prediction. In that situation economics only allows a prediction of prices being higher than they would have otherwise been. Depending on the circumstance this could be a very large increase, a very large decrease or anything in between. Predicting which of a multitude of possible outcomes it will be is speculation, not economics. Using economic statistics and other data is technical analysis and as such can be helpful in speculation, but also, reliant as it is on the past to predict the future, at best only works until it suddenly doesn’t. Proper theory on the other hand continues to produce accurate, if extremely limited, predictive ability. Not the sort that can be used to generate tomorrow’s news today, but which can predict something will end badly, though never exactly how or when it will happen. That isn’t what people want from economics, so they always try to overreach in search of the holy grail, or just the chance to say I told you so.

Relative Strength of Indexes as a Future Return Indicator  Basically worthless, which is probably why I never look at them.

Shared Lock  Interesting chunk of low tech security.  Also looks like you could hacksaw the L mechanism to gain access even if the locks were impenetrable. Plus half the county appears to have access already.

Shifty, but secure eyes What is the total number of people to have participated in eye saccades studies? This sounds like another case of the bad science of fingerprinting in the making. Someone starts saying they are unique and reliable after comparing a small number of people, and it just snowballs from there without ever being rigorously tested.

Dad’s brain means more than his money  Inheriting a fortune is pointless if you can’t hold onto it. That takes more than a few brain cells.

‘Penis-head’ fish discovered in Vietnam  This sounds too good to be true. Now we know from what critter creationists evolved.

Earphones ‘potentially as dangerous as noise from jet engines,’ according to new study  When I can tell what you’re listening to from 5 feet away on a noisy street, you’re going to be deaf in record time.

Calorie restriction doesn’t slow ageing, monkey study suggests  Healthier but still dead on schedule.

Zynga Chief Creative Officer to Resign  Don’t bother clicking through, I only mention this because I find it hilarious they have something as brazenly oxymoronic as a “Chief Creative Officer.”  Such a clueless B-School approach to the problem. “I command you to be creative! NOW!”


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